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Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve just released the minutes from their latest FOMC meeting and the stock market went nuts. The S&P 500 shot up over 5% in a single day and the NASDAQ went up over 7% on the heels of "low" inflation numbers. But we could see another BIG crash in the stock market, which could be a much better opportunity than right now to load up on the best stocks to buy. Don't say I didn't warn you!
I do not think the market is pricing in the real possibility of another peak in inflation. When all of these things make it into the data that Fed looks at over the next few months, Jerome Powell might surprise the market by raising interest rates higher than expected or keep them higher longer than expected, or both. That doesn’t mean another 75 basis point raise on interest rates right now. It could be a couple 25 basis point raises that turn into 50. Or a couple 50 basis point raises that turn into 75. Or that interest rates stay closer to 4% instead of 3.25 through 2025.
But here's the thing: Rents account for 32% of the CPI, don’t actually go down very often, and can lag the rest of the CPI by up to a year. Food accounts for 14% of the CPI and there’s hidden inflation in these numbers thanks to shrinking portion sizes and cheaper ingredient substitutions. Energy accounts for 7.5% of the CPI. We’ve been subsidizing energy costs almost all year with deployments from the strategic petroleum reserve. These deployments are about to stop, right as winter drives up demand while the EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas lower the world’s effective oil supply.
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