Welcome to this week's comprehensive stock market analysis with Revanth Chalamala! In this video, we cover the significant monthly returns, recent weekly corrections, crucial technical levels, major global updates, and institutional activity (FII/DII) impacting the market outlook.
Market Performance & Trend Analysis:
The market demonstrated positive momentum this month, with Nifty delivering strong returns, up almost 4.5% (around 1,100 points). However, recent weeks have seen some weakness and correction. This week, Nifty saw an overall correction of 0.28%. The prevailing sentiment suggests a bearish tone, with big players attempting to book profits whenever the market moves upside.
Key Levels and Consolidation:
• We analyze a technical pattern where the recent candle closed below the previous week's low, suggesting a potential move toward consolidation.
• The market faces strong resistance between 26,000 and 26,250. Upside movements toward this zone are likely to trigger sell-offs.
• A solid support area is anticipated around the 25,300 level.
• Consolidation is a healthy phase necessary for the market before the next leg of a proper rally. If the market consolidates for another one to two weeks, it will establish a solid support area. Investors should view market consolidation as a blessing, offering opportunities to accelerate investments. Global and Economic Factors:
• US Market & Fed Commentary: US markets experienced a sell-off following the Fed's 25 basis point interest rate cut. The Fed Chairman's comments expressed doubt about a previously anticipated second interest rate cut in December and raised concerns about inflation dynamics given rising tariffs, suggesting potential instability in the US economy.
• US-China Trade: A positive development is the near completion of a framework for a US-China trade agreement covering issues like agricultural purchases and TikTok trade issues. Positive movement before November 10th could benefit global markets.
• Indian Growth Story: The IMF upgraded India's GDP forecast for the Financial Year 2025 to 6.6% (revised from 6.2%). India's energy imports from the US have also doubled, indicating efforts to cool political tensions and secure favorable trade agreements.
Institutional Activity and Sector Focus:
• FII/DII Activity: FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) engaged in net selling totaling approximately ₹7,500 crores during Wednesday and Thursday, while DIIs (Domestic Institutional Institutions) performed net buying of approximately ₹8,000 crores. FII short positions have slightly elevated.
• Sector Highlights: While the Metals sector experienced a negative reaction (over 1% correction), PSU Banks showed remarkable strength, moving up 1.56%, possibly due to increased FII participation influenced by recent government changes.
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